by Alana Klein
With the playoffs drawing ever-closer, I figured it’d be a good time to discuss the tiebreakers. I will preface this by saying that I got this list earlier in the season from a source I trust. While I have good reason to trust this list, an important piece of it was just confirmed to me, meaning that short of the league coming out with an “official” list on the AF1 site or socials, I feel 100% confident in referring to it.
If teams are tied in winning percentage, the tiebreakers unfold in the following steps:
- Head-to-head (best winning percentage in games between the clubs)
- 99% of the time, two teams will only play each other 1 or 2 times during the regular season. Although due to scheduling, availability, and traveling constraints, teams will sometimes meet 3 (or even 4!) times in a season.
- 99% of the time, two teams will only play each other 1 or 2 times during the regular season. Although due to scheduling, availability, and traveling constraints, teams will sometimes meet 3 (or even 4!) times in a season.
- Point differential in head-to-head games
- If the teams have the same win/loss percentage against each other (note: only possible if they play an even number of times), then the tiebreaker shifts to whomever has a point differential combined from all of the games. If you would like to see real-life examples, we have had that happen twice thus far.
- In the 1st game between Beaumont and Washington, the Wolfpack won by a single point. In the 2nd, the Renegades won by 7. Therefore, Beaumont won the head-to-head.
- In the 1st game between Michigan and Albany, the Firebirds won by 3. However, the Arsenal won the 2nd matchup by 18 and thus, they hold the tiebreaker. Note that this is a point rendered moot by the fact that Albany will end up with a better overall record than Michigan.
- If the teams have the same win/loss percentage against each other (note: only possible if they play an even number of times), then the tiebreaker shifts to whomever has a point differential combined from all of the games. If you would like to see real-life examples, we have had that happen twice thus far.
- Best winning percentage in divisional games
- Now I know you might be saying “… but the AF1 doesn’t have divisions”. And that’s true, but not the whole story. When the AF1 was first formed in the offseason of 2024-2025, it originally had divisions. They decided to scrap the divisional format after a few teams had to back out before the season began. As I mentioned earlier, when this list was first presented to me, the fact that it had this step sounded familiar to me and made sense, and garnered my trust that this was legitimate.
- Now I know you might be saying “… but the AF1 doesn’t have divisions”. And that’s true, but not the whole story. When the AF1 was first formed in the offseason of 2024-2025, it originally had divisions. They decided to scrap the divisional format after a few teams had to back out before the season began. As I mentioned earlier, when this list was first presented to me, the fact that it had this step sounded familiar to me and made sense, and garnered my trust that this was legitimate.
- Highest net points in all games
- There’s a good reason why I use points per game (PPG) instead of total points during the season, which I addressed a few weeks ago. More than it being a matter of a more accurate snapshot in time, due to the restructuring of the schedule, Michigan will play 13 games and Kentucky will have effectively played 11. It’s not fair to judge a team by total points if they have not had the same number of opportunities.
- There’s a good reason why I use points per game (PPG) instead of total points during the season, which I addressed a few weeks ago. More than it being a matter of a more accurate snapshot in time, due to the restructuring of the schedule, Michigan will play 13 games and Kentucky will have effectively played 11. It’s not fair to judge a team by total points if they have not had the same number of opportunities.
- Strength of schedule
- I am unsure of what formula the league office uses to calculate this. It’s usually some form of the combined record of all of your opponents on the schedule. It is very unlikely that any tiebreaker would get to this point.
- I am unsure of what formula the league office uses to calculate this. It’s usually some form of the combined record of all of your opponents on the schedule. It is very unlikely that any tiebreaker would get to this point.
- Coin toss
- As I said to someone in reply to their question a few weeks ago about the tiebreakers, if it gets to this point and every single one of the above steps are tied — literally exact numbers down to the nth decimal place, then the coin toss would probably result in the damn coin landing on it’s side like that one episode of “The Twilight Zone”.
I will have full playoff seeding scenarios in my “What to Watch For” posts for the next few weeks as the playoffs get closer and closer. There is also the matter of figuring out a tie among 3 (or more) teams. That’s very unlikely to happen, so that’s another topic to visit in the offseason.
And if by you reading this I have convinced even just one person that Albany can clinch the head-to-head over Nashville without having to win by about “50-thousand-million points” (There’s a story behind that, but for another time.), then that’ll give me one less reason to be Screaming Into the Void.