The Numbers Game: Week 12 recap & standings

by Alana Klein

Highlights of the week
  • Beaumont-Nashville
    • Nashville pounced early and often and won in dominating fashion. If Kulka’s got the offense purring (no pun intended … seriously … I surprise myself sometimes) along with a top-notch D and the best kicker in the league, they’re gonna be next to impossible to stop.
  • Michigan-Washington
    • The Arsenal steamrolled their way to another W. There’s still a hypothetical chance that they could host a playoff game. Malik Henry’s playing QB at an MVP-level and the only team that’s beaten them in the last 5 games is the current #1.

Into the record books
  • Somewhat surprisingly, Nashville’s 52-point victory BARELY crept into the top 10 of the AF1’s most lopsided victories.

Stats of the Week
  • Kentucky could hypothetically finish either in a 3-way tie (based on winning percentage) with Albany & Nashville — where they could get as high as a #1 seed — or in a 3-way with Minnesota & Washington — where they could get as low as a #5 seed.


Tiebreakers
  • Michigan has clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker outright over Washington.


PLAYOFFS?! Don’t talk about playoffs! PLAYOFFS?! 

Minimum seed clinched
(These are not necessarily final seeds, but rather the worst a team can do)

  • Albany: 3
  • Kentucky: 5
  • Nashville: 3
  • Oceanside: eliminated


Best possible playoff seeding

  • Albany: 1
  • Beaumont: 4
  • Kentucky: 1
  • Michigan: 4
  • Minnesota: 3
  • Nashville: 1
  • Oceanside: eliminated
  • Washington: 3


Standings
RaNKtEAMwIN %ppghEAD TO hEAD
1x-Nashville
Kats
0.90061.00Beaumont, Michigan,
Minnesota, Oceanside
2x-Albany
Firebirds
0.80053.20Beaumont, Kentucky,
Minnesota, Oceanside,
Washington
3x-Kentucky
Barrels
0.70046.67*Michigan, Nashville,
Oceanside
4Minnesota
Monsters
0.55638.00Michigan, Oceanside
5Washington
Wolfpack
0.50035.20Kentucky, Oceanside
6Michigan
Arsenal
0.45544.36Albany, Washington
7Beaumont
Renegades
0.33332.78Oceanside, Washington
8e-Oceanside
Bombers
0.10039.20
Oregon
Lightning
0.11122.89

x: playoff berth
y: 1st round bye
z: 1st round bye + home field advantage
e: eliminated

* This doesn’t factor in the 1 point Kentucky was awarded for the forfeiture win over Oregon.

NOTE: I use points per game instead of total points because there will not at any point in the season be a time when all teams have played the same number of games until the final whistle of the final game. Therefore, PPG is a more accurate indication of where teams would stand at this point in time instead of using the “Total Points” tiebreaker.


# In the event of a tie between 3+ teams:

  • Compare head-to-head results in a round robin-style elimination.
  • Compare total points scored in a round robin-style elimination.
  • If a team can be seeded after a step, remove that team from the tiebreaker and (if there are still 3+ teams) start over with head-to-head, repeating the process until there are only 2 teams remaining.
  • Revert to 2-team tiebreaker rules.

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