The Numbers Game: Head-to-Head Tiebreakers Coming Fast & Furious

by Alana Klein

Three out of the four games this weekend settled head-to-head tiebreakers, helping to determine the #1 seed and the other of which could end up deciding who keeps playing deeper into July. With the season at its midpoint and teams beginning to see opponents for a 2nd or 3rd (or 4th!) time, the head-to-heads should really start to fill out. We also have our first tiebreaker that was settled by point differential because the teams split the season series (Beaumont over Washington).

I have included an explanation of the tiebreaker when 3+ teams are tied in winning %. While this is irrelevant this week, it was needed last week and very well could be next week.


Highlights of the week:

  • Nashville went into Friday’s game scoring an average of 57.80 PPG and allowing 30.00 PPG. After winning 58-28, those numbers barely moved. Their scoring average went up to 57.83 (+0.03) and their points allowed decreased to 29.67 (-0.33). This is a basically useless observation, but I thought it was remarkable. (There’s a reason why this is called “The Numbers Game”.)
  • Beaumont & Washington gave us another instant classic.

Into the record books:

  • While a quick search didn’t yield any results, Minnesota FB Shannon Brooks’ 47-yard run is by definition one of the longest runs in arena football history, irregardless of league. (And yes. I know that ‘irregardless’ isn’t a word, but it’s such a great non-word.)

Tiebreakers clinched this week:

  • Beaumont clinched the head-to-head over Washington by virtue of point differential.
  • Michigan clinched the head-to-head outright over Oregon.
  • Kentucky clinched the head-to-head outright over Oceanside.

Standings

TeamWinning %Points Per GameSet Tiebreakers
1Albany1.00051.67H2H: MIN, ORE, WASH
2Kentucky0.83351.00H2H: MICH, NSH, OCN
3Nashville0.83357.83H2H: OCN, ORE
4Minnesota0.60033.40H2H: MICH
5Beaumont0.33338.83H2H: WASH
6Washington0.33333.33
7Michigan0.28639.43H2H: ORE
8Oceanside0.16744.33
9Oregon0.16727.67


* NOTE: I use points per game instead of total points because there will not at any point in the season be a time when all teams have played the same number of games until the final whistle of the final game. Therefore, PPG is a more accurate indication of where teams would stand using the “Total Points” tiebreaker.

# In the event of a tie between 3+ teams:
– Compare head-to-head results in a round robin-style elimination.
– Compare total points scored in a round robin-style elimination.
– If a team can be seeded after a step, remove that team from the tiebreaker and (if there are still 3+ teams) start over with head-to-head, repeating the process until there are only 2 teams remaining.

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